Politics:
Future of China

Within about 20 years, China will dissolve into independent countries, after the precedent of the "Union" of Soviet Socialist Republics.

The central government has consolidated power, such as with its invasion of Tibet. But the central government is about to become too weak to maintain control of the Uighurs, Tibetans, and other conquered people. The Chinese government relies on control of information. The communication explosion has made it impossible for the Communist Party to retain control of information, Google's concessions notwithstanding.

As long as China’s economy continues to grow, the Party can hope to stay in power. If the Chinese believe that their lives can get better with the Party running things, they’ll play along. But when the inevitable economic setback occurs, the people will recognize the Party as a hindrance to their liberty and prosperity. They will dispense with it.

The Chinesed government is attempting to bolster its position by setting itself up as the leader of a “legion of evil.” They court countries that have natural resources and corrupt governments, such as Nigeria. Their promise is that, unlike the West, they don’t give a rat’s ass if the corrupt governments torture and oppress their own people. Personally, I’d love to see China invest millions or billions into oil infrastructure in Nigeria. Then, when the corrupt Nigerian government falls, it will be Chinese facilities that will be nationalized or torched. Aligning oneself with the dirtiest governments across the planet is only going to work in the short run. But maybe that makes sense for Communist China, as the short run is all it’s got left.

—JoT
July 2006

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Gay Pride Parade
Seattle 2006
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